Rain returns to Albuquerque this evening

The sky over Albuquerque is clearing up for now, but that will not last.

High pressure that has kept the region dry is weakening as a disturbance in the upper atmosphere moves in from western Arizona. This system brings a plume of Pacific moisture that is already increasing cloud cover across western and northwestern New Mexico. The dry spell that has covered nearly 99% of the viewing area this morning is set to end as the weather pattern shifts.

Rain chances will climb throughout Friday, peaking in the afternoon and evening. Forecasters expect widespread showers across southern New Mexico, while western and central areas will see isolated to scattered precipitation. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the western part of the state this afternoon, though atmospheric instability is limited. Eastern areas may see some activity overnight, but the disturbance’s position limits the lift needed for heavy rain there.

For Albuquerque, models consistently point to rain later in the day. The chance of precipitation is currently set at 10% during the day and 30% in the evening. Showers are most likely to develop between 5 p.m. and 10 p.m., though activity could start as early as 3 p.m. or 4 p.m. The likelihood of rain should drop closer to midnight as the system moves on.

The core of this storm system will stay outside New Mexico, tracking across northern Mexico before entering Texas later in the weekend. Because the system carries less moisture than recent storms that caused flooding, rainfall totals will be light. Most areas should receive less than a quarter-inch of rain. A few locations with heavier showers might see slightly more, but totals should generally stay under a half-inch.

Snow is also possible in western and southern New Mexico. Accumulations will generally be light, but higher elevations in the south-central mountains could see 1 to 2 inches. Isolated spots might approach 4 inches as temperatures fall in the evening. Saturday will remain wet across much of southern New Mexico. Clouds will gradually decrease from north to south in the northern and central parts of the state, with rain tapering off by Saturday evening.

Sunday looks sunnier and slightly warmer, with only a slight chance of lingering showers in far southeastern New Mexico. The rest of the week appears quiet with a gradual warming trend. Mornings will stay chilly, but afternoon highs will rise nearly every day. A cold front may brush parts of eastern New Mexico between Tuesday and Wednesday, though its timing and extent remain uncertain.

Another potentially strong Pacific storm system could bring unsettled weather back to the state by next Friday and into the following weekend. Forecasters continue to monitor this system as the forecast becomes clearer over the next week.