Texas Senate Race Tipped as Early Vote Surges
Democratic leads in key counties and record early turnout reshape the state's political map on election night.
By Kofi Costa ·
Voters across Texas stepped out of polling places at 7 p.m., with El Paso residents given an extra hour due to Mountain Time. As the day ended, more than 40% of eligible voters had already cast ballots. This figure set a record for early turnout in a non-presidential election year.
James Talarico, the Democrat running for U.S. Senate, leads in several swing counties according to early returns. In Tarrant County, a critical bellwether, every statewide Democratic candidate holds a double-digit advantage over their Republican opponents. Talarico also leads in Collin County, the home base of Republican attorney general Ken Paxton, and Denton County.
Leads are appearing in traditionally conservative areas. Talarico holds a nearly 10-point edge in Brazos County, home to Texas A&M University. In the Panhandle, he commands 40% of the early vote in Potter County and 29% in Randall County. These numbers far exceed the support Beto O'Rourke received in those same regions during the 2018 race.
In deep-blue Dallas County, Talarico leads the early vote 73% to 25%. This margin of 48 points exceeds the 28-point advantage Colin Allred secured in his home county during the 2024 election. Democrats are using these leads to project potential gains in down-ballot races across the state.
Results in the Rio Grande Valley remain pending, a region where Talarico campaigned heavily. In Nueces County, Democratic candidates lead in all federal and state races except for House District 32. Early numbers there show Talarico with 55% of the vote, while Republican incumbents in nearby House districts face steep challenges with low early support.
The Associated Press called the State Board of Education District 13 race for incumbent Democrat Tiffany Clark. She leads Republican Carlos Garza 81% to 19% with 67% of votes counted. In District 2, which covers the Rio Grande Valley, Democrat Thomas Ray Garcia leads Republican Victoria Hinojosa 54% to 46% with roughly 14% of votes in.
Democrats currently hold 62 of 150 seats in the Texas House. They need to win 14 additional seats to secure a majority. Early data shows Democratic candidates outperforming their Republican counterparts in counties like Denton, Tarrant, and Fort Bend. State Representative Caroline Harris Davila is trailing in Williamson County, while Representative Gary Gates is narrowly behind in Fort Bend County.
Party watch parties reflect the mood. At Ken Paxton's event in Dallas, guests watched results on a projector while eating popcorn, with the atmosphere cooling as Talarico leads appeared in nearby counties. In Austin, Democratic headquarters erupted in cheers as leads in Tarrant and Collin counties appeared on screens, accompanied by live music and ice cream for children.
