Young voters drive Democratic midterm gains
The AP Voter Poll indicates a sharp reversal in 2026, with voters under 30 and Hispanic residents returning to the Democratic column in large numbers.
By Marta Gray ·
Voters under 30 and Hispanic residents reversed their 2024 voting patterns in the 2026 midterms, according to the Associated Press Voter Poll.
The survey covered more than 100,000 voters across all 50 states. It shows that demographic groups that moved toward President Donald Trump in 2024 largely returned to the Democratic Party this year. This shift helped Democrats win several key Senate seats and House races.
In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump held roughly equal support among the youngest voters. By 2026, about seven in 10 voters under 30 said they supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race. Only about three in 10 chose the Republican. This change was visible in Senate contests in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina, where Democrats gained ground. However, voters under 30 comprised only about 10% of the national electorate, which limited the total impact of this demographic shift.
Hispanic voters also moved away from the Republicans. Approximately 60% of this group nationally voted for the Democratic House candidate, compared to 30% who chose the Republican. In the Texas Senate race, Democrat James Talarico won about 60% of Hispanic voters, while Republican Ken Paxton received about 30%. This stands in contrast to the 2024 presidential election, when the group was more evenly split between the two candidates.
Black voters, particularly Black men, also shifted back toward the Democrats. About 90% of Black voters supported the Democratic House candidate, up from roughly 80% who backed Harris in 2024. In Georgia, about 90% of Black men voted for Keisha Lance Bottoms, the state’s first Black female governor. In Florida, Republican Byron Donalds won about 25% of Black men, but only about 10% of Black women.
Moderate voters provided a crucial margin for Democratic Senate candidates. About two-thirds of moderates supported the Democratic House candidate, an increase from the 60% who supported Harris in 2024. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about 70% of moderates, up from roughly half for Harris. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek secured about two-thirds of this group, and in North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper won about 75%.
Economic concerns also influenced lower-income voters. More than half of voters with a 2025 household income under $50,000 voted for the Democratic House candidate. This group was roughly split between Trump and Harris in 2024. About 60% of these voters said the cost of living was a primary factor in their choice, compared to about half of those earning $50,000 or more. The AP Voter Poll data will serve as the benchmark for analyzing the 2026 election outcomes in the coming weeks.
