Warm Waters Boost Odds of Subtropical Storm Kyle Forming Soon
The National Hurricane Center raised the seven-day probability to 50 percent as jet stream dynamics and ocean heat interact.
By Adriana Abebe ·
The National Hurricane Center assigned a 50 percent chance that a developing low-pressure system will become a subtropical storm within the next seven days. This represents an increase in the probability of development compared to earlier forecasts for the system currently moving across the Atlantic.
Meteorologists identify two primary drivers behind the strengthening trend. A powerful jet stream positioned across the southern United States and extending into the Atlantic provides dynamic lift. Simultaneously, exceptionally warm Atlantic waters fuel the system's organization. This combination of upper-level winds and ocean heat creates the specific conditions necessary for a hybrid weather pattern to take shape.
If the system organizes further, forecasters will designate it as Subtropical Storm Kyle. Unlike purely tropical storms, a subtropical storm possesses characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems. The agency currently lists a 30 percent chance of development occurring within the next 48 hours. At this stage, the system poses no immediate threat to land.
The current atmospheric setup aligns with active El Niño conditions affecting the Atlantic basin. These conditions typically support the jet stream configurations that allow such storms to form. Forecasters note that the atmospheric setup will continue to favor development in this region until sea surface temperatures cool to seasonal norms.
