Fewer Than 2,000 Votes Separate Mississippi Senate Candidates Amid 20,000 Unprocessed Ballots
State officials lack centralized data on outstanding affidavit ballots, leaving a gap in reporting for a race decided by a single digit margin.
By Adriana Abebe ·
Fewer than 2,000 votes separated incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic challenger Scott Colom as of midday Friday. Yet state officials could not provide a definitive count of the remaining ballots that must be processed to finalize the result. The uncertainty stems from a decentralized election administration system where 82 counties manage their own voting processes.
The race has exposed gaps in how Mississippi tracks provisional votes, known locally as affidavit ballots. These are cast by voters whose eligibility is under review. The Colom campaign reported late Tuesday that it was aware of more than 15,000 such ballots. The chair of the state Republican Party estimated on Thursday that 20,000 outstanding ballots remained, including absentee votes that may legally arrive until November 10 if postmarked by Election Day.
Michael Watson, the Republican Secretary of State, stated that his office did not know the total number of provisionals left to count. He confirmed that over 9,000 had been processed by midday Friday. Watson noted that individual counties are the primary source for updated information until certified results are available. Counties are not required to transmit election results to the state until next week.
The timeline for resolution depends on the verification of these affidavit ballots. Under federal law, voters marked as inactive in other states may cast regular ballots for a few years. Mississippi requires these voters to cast provisional ballots, which necessitate a case-by-case review by local officials. This process adds a layer of scrutiny to the count that is less common in other jurisdictions.
The rate of provisional ballots in Mississippi may be among the highest in the country. If the Colom campaign's estimate of 15,000 ballots holds, that figure represents roughly 1.5% of the total votes cast in the Senate race. In the 2022 midterm election, only four states recorded a higher provisional ballot rate. Mississippi's current preliminary data suggests a rate close to double that of North Carolina this year.
One factor cited for the high number of affidavit ballots is the state's experimental use of credit data to maintain voter lists. Michael Morse, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said this technique introduces unreliability by deviating from standard procedural processes. He expressed shock at the lack of clear information available for such a high-profile contest.
Watson defended the registration process in a Tuesday post on X, stating that the extra time required for affidavit ballots is worth the election integrity gained from cleaner voter rolls. Kathy Boockvar, the former Democratic Secretary of State of Pennsylvania, countered that the process can create suspicion among voters who believe they are eligible. She emphasized that transparency and good data are essential to combating distrust in the electoral system.
The next step in the process is the certification of results by the 82 counties. Until that occurs, the margin between Hyde-Smith and Colom remains subject to change as local officials review the outstanding affidavit and absentee ballots.
